低吸买盘不断,黄金反弹近15美元突破千四关口

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周二(7月9日)纽市盘中,金价走高,现货黄金一度较日低反弹近15美元,刷新日内高点至1400.07美元/盎司,稍早曾跌至一周低点,但守住了一关键技术水准,投资者利用下跌机会买入。市场开始聚焦美联储主席鲍威尔周三开始在国会就货币政策进行为期两天的作证。

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RJO Futures市场策略师Alex Turro表示,美元反弹至三周高位,推动金价在盘中稍早走低,之后我们看到有少量低吸买盘支撑市场。

Kitco Metals资深分析师Jim Wyckoff称,金价守住了1385.00美元附近的关键技术支撑位,引发一些技术性买盘。

美联储本月可能小幅降息25个基点,推动美元在盘中稍早上扬。降息50个基点的预期几率已从上周的25%降至5.9%,推动美元指数升至三周高点降息25个基点的可能性为98%。

尽管金价跌破1400美元的关键水准,但前景依然乐观。分析师认为中东紧张情势,央行买盘为金价提供支撑。黄金消费大国中国的黄金储备价值从5月底的798.3亿美元跃升至872.7亿美元。截至7月2日当周,对冲基金和基金经理增加了对COMEX黄金的看涨头寸。

路孚特GFMS的贵金属分析师Samson Li表示,从技术面看,金价在1400美元左右盘整,上下波动不超过每止司20美元。

XXAfter the release of non-agricultural data last week, market volatility intensified, but in fact, in terms of the data itself, the new order data of the US Purchasing Managers Index at the beginning of the week has fallen back to the dry line. At the same time, the weakening of the global manufacturing managers' index also shows that the uncertainty of the global economy is constantly strengthening. The market's loose expectations for major central banks are also being included in asset prices. Therefore, gold still has upside potential after the short-term adjustment is over.

As the gold market receives more and more attention, more and more investors are beginning to intervene in gold at a higher price. This situation is accompanied by a short-term market expectation of interest rate cuts in July, and the geopolitical factors that make the investment position in gold begin to appear crowded, which is shown in the position of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Especially obvious.

However, with the non-agricultural announcement, the market's expectation of a 50 basis point cut in July fell to 5.9% (the market once had more than 30% of expectations), making investors entering the high position facing a dilemma. This part of the position will put some pressure on the gold's re-rising in the short term, which means that the adjustment of the gold market will continue. Given the current market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in July, the US consumer price index (CPI) data released next week will be particularly important.

TD Securities believes that the gold market will be trapped in a volatile area in the near future, but then there will be a new bullish trend, pushing the price of gold up to 1,500 US dollars/ounce level; the bank expects gold prices to remain for the rest of the year At around $1400/oz, it will rise to $1,474 per ounce in the fourth quarter of next year.

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